ClimaCell Global Seasonal Forecast: Fall 2019

August 20, 2019

TL:DR: ClimaCell’s Seasonal Outlook forecasts continued extreme weather conditions worldwide. Expect warmer-than-average temperatures on the East and West coasts of the U.S. as well as in South America, South Africa, Europe, Central Asia, Maj, Chad, Niger, Sudan and Australia. Dramatic drought conditions are expected in Indonesia, North Australia and Central and East Brazil. South and Central India will also face-drier-than average conditions. In contrast, there is significant risk of flooding in Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenia, Somalia, and Djibouti.

It’s Been a Long, Hot Summer…

After breaking heat records in many places in the world, summer 2019 is (finally?) coming to a close in the Northern Hemisphere. According to official measurements and NOAA publications, June and July were the hottest months on record. Indeed, 2019 continues the trend of global warming, with record-breaking ice melting in Greenland and the North Pole, and we expect 2019 to be another warmer-than average year.

Spring and summer 2019 saw not only heat weaves but also extreme rain events, tremendous hail storms, and record flooding. In India, the Monsoon season started late this year, but when it finally arrived in July, states like Bihar, Assam, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karela experienced excessive rain and extreme flooding events with massive losses of life and property. Unusual precipitation amounts were measured in certain places, including Tamil Nadu, Southern India (830 mm in only 24 hours), Cambodia, and Myanmar (830 mm in only 24 hours and 1500 mm in 3 days).

Now What?

The question now is: what should we expect in the fall (and spring, in the Southern Hemisphere)? According to ClimaCell’s Seasonal Outlook, we are going to see some significant trends in the September-December timeframe:

  • Very interesting weather is expected in North America this fall: East and West coast residents will experience warmer-than-average temperatures, mostly in Florida, and even more extreme in Alaska, while in the midwest, the central plains to central Canada, temperatures will be around their normal values. Unlike the extreme wet summer that parts of the continental U.S experienced during the spring, fall precipitation is expected to be around normal, with slightly wetter-than-normal conditions in the North-West, around the Great Lakes and in Alaska.
  • In South America, especially in Brazil, the spring is going to be warmer than usual.
  • People in South Africa, Europe, Central Asia, and Australia are also going to face warmer-than-average temperatures.
  • Dramatic drought conditions are expected to develop Indonesia (mostly in the central and the southern parts of the archipelago) and in northern Australia.
  • South and Central India will also face drier-than-average conditions.
  • Central and East Brazil are expected to see significant drought conditions.
  • In East Africa and the Horn of Africa, we are expecting to see wetter-than-normal conditions this fall, with above-average precipitation and severe risk of flooding in Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenia, Somalia, and Djibouti.
  • On the other hand, Mali, Chad, Niger, and Sudan are going to face drier-than-average conditions.

These expected anomalies – of flood and drought conditions – will affect billions of people around the world in the coming months, often with devastating consequences. Knowing what to expect, and having the information to plan ahead, will hopefully contribute to communities and individuals staying safe.